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Goalies are inclined to fade of their second NHL season. Scary development for Stuart Skinner?

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This in from fantasy hockey skilled Alexander MacLean of Dobber Hockey, his take that Stuart Skinner might nicely endure from the sophomore jinx this season, because it’s generally seen with NHL goalies of their second season.

MacLean says he’s going to keep away from taking Skinner for any of his fantasy groups. Why?

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“First off, he’s coming in as a sophomore goalie and there have been loads of rookie goalies through the years who fail to regulate as soon as they’ve been scouted and damaged down by NHL competitors. Working in Skinner’s favour is that he does have a historical past of heavier workloads, and his final quarter of the season was additionally his greatest. Whereas there are nonetheless some markers for achievement, what actually worries me probably the most are the expectations and the competitors. Jack Campbell had a horrible first season in Edmonton, however goalies (and particularly these which can be a bit extra vulnerable to streaks like Campbell) take some time to regulate to new group defence constructions and gamers. Now that he has his toes again beneath him, I do anticipate a really strong bounce-back marketing campaign from the veteran. His bigger contract ought to be sure that he does get the alternatives, and that Skinner (even when he finally ends up the a lot better goalie once more this yr) can be capped across the 50 video games he performed final season.”

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My take

1. I used to be all set to knock down MacLean’s assertion about Skinner possible having a down yr, however having dug into the historical past of NHL goalies coming off sturdy rookie seasons, it’s evident that MacLean makes a strong level in his sober evaluation of the Edmonton goalie scenario.

2. I did a back-of-the-envelope survey, trying on the NHL rookie goalies who’ve completed highest in Calder voting every year to see how they did of their follow-up season. The excellent news, regardless of how these goalies did of their second seasons, it was a promising listing of goalies who had sturdy rookie years: Henrik Lundqvist, Mike Smith, Carey Worth, Steve Mason, Jimmy Howard, Corey Crawford, Robin Lehner, Frederik Andersen, Michael Hutchinson, John Gibson, Matt Murray, Jordan Binnington, Elvis Merzjlikins, Igor Shesterkin and Jeremy Swayman (in two seasons, no goalie bought any Calder voters). In different phrases, Stuart Skinner has put himself in good firm right here, with just a few dud goalies on the listing

3. I discovered two different notable issues from my survey. First, {that a} majority of the goalies, eight out 15, performed extra video games of their sophomore season, with three extra taking part in the identical variety of video games. Just a few of them performed significantly extra video games of their second season, Frederik Andersen, 26, Robin Lehner, 24, Igor Shesterkin and Jordan Binnington, 18, Henrik Lundqvist, 17, John Gibson, 12, Mike Smith and Carey Worth, 11. Of the goalies who dropped in video games performed, Michael Hutchinson led the way in which at -8, then Elvis Merzjlikins, -5.

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4. It is smart that the goalies would play extra coming off massive rookie seasons, as they’d demonstrated their high quality and there was loads of hope and positivity round them, given their strong first-year performances.

5. When it got here to avoid wasting percentages, nevertheless, 12 out of the 15 noticed a drop of their save proportion, a few of them crashing in dramatic trend. Lehner dropped probably the most, from 0.936 to 0.913, -0.023. Subsequent most have been Murray and Howard, -0.016, and Mason, Binnington and Worth, -0.015. Clearly if Skinner have been to drop that a lot, from 0.913 to one thing within the 0.890s, that might be a serious blow for the Oilers.

6. Just a few goalies improved, notably Igor Shesterkin, from 0.916 to 0.935, and Jeremy Swayman, from .914 to .920.

7. As MacLean identified, there’s certainly a transparent downward development for prime goalies of their second yr. Maybe it has to do with shooters and coaches getting extra of a ebook on their weaknesses. Possibly a few of them endure from having extra of labor load. On this regard, Skinner may profit from having Jack Campbell round, as there’s no want for Skinner to play 50 or 60 video games. If Campbell can decide up his recreation, the goalies can break up the work load.